Monday, 2 December 2013

the indian eyes.net


Corruption the main issue in 2014 elections
Contributed by - Our Bureau
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BJP will definitely make it an issue in 2014 election
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New Delhi:
It pays to be anti-corruption. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), known for its crusade against corruption, is gaining momentum on both the BJP and Congress. According to a poll conducted by AC Nielson for ABP News, the outcome of the Delhi Assembly elections is likely to be a hung assembly with no party in a position to form the government. The poll shows that AAP will win 26 per cent of the votes and 18 seats in the 70-member assembly. It also indicates that Arvind Jejriwal, AAP’s CM candidate is the most preferred CM candidate with 32 per cent people backing him as opposed to 27 each for CM Sheila Dikshit and BJP’s Vijay Goel.
The poll also projects that BJP will emerge as the largest party with 34 per cent votes, whereas Congress will get 27 per cent votes. AC Nielson had earlier conducted a survey in August on the Delhi assembly polls and results differ now from the August polls predictions. That time it was estimated that BJP would win 32 seats, while Congress would win 27 seats. The surprise package here is the AAP that has shown a 11-point increase in the vote share from August and October. AAP has been banking on the aam aadmi (common man) for votes this election. Their main agenda has been to connect with the people and rid the capital of corrupt political parties.
This is a clear indication that in the next national elections – in 2014 – corruption will be the main issue. Reports coming from Bihar suggest that credibilcorruption, economy and terrorism have emerged as the top three national issues among the voters in Bihar ahead of the 2014 general elections. Nearly three in four respondents have expressed dissatisfaction with the Centre over corruption while an even higher 79 per cent have given the Congress-led coalition the thumbsdown over its handling of the economy.
The score is only relatively better when it comes to cross-border tensions, with 68 per cent expressing dissatisfaction while 57 per cent said they were not satisfied with the government’s efforts to maintain communal harmony. The Congress, on the other hand, seems to be hoping that its rights-based agenda will offset public anger against it on other counts. But the findings suggest the need for the Congress to rework its election strategy to come up with credible solutions to the key issues that are agitating the minds of voters. On the issue of corruption, the state government led by Nitish Kumar also fared poorly. As many as 61 per cent of the respondents mentioned corruption as a very serious issue.
The survey suggests that Kumar, who has brought the state back on the rails, needs to address the aspirations of the electorate. Law and order — a key problem during the Lalu Prasad-Rabri Devi rule — is no longer troubling the electorate. Even as the Congress part is likely to suffer and BJP likely to gain, Union Minister for Communications and Information Technology Kapil Sibal on Tuesday cited the laws of nature and said that he believed the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi bubble would burst prior the 2014 General Elections, and added that it was worrisome that a candidate like the Gujarat Chief Minister is aspiring to occupy the top office of the country. “Normally, the law of nature is that he who rises, falls and the quicker he rises, the quicker he falls. So, I don’t know how the laws of nature are going to work, as far as, Narendra Modi is concerned,” he said in an exclusive interview with Asian News International.
“I do believe that a lot of this is hype and its based on a private army being employed by Narendra Modi to disturb the cyberspace in his favour and we will see if he moves forward at all, or not. As you know all bubbles burst, that’s again the law of nature, this bubble too will burst,” he added. Continuing his onslaught on Modi, Sibal said that as a citizen of the country he was concerned about the prospect of the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate aspirations of becoming the Prime Minister of India, as he believed that the Gujarat Chief Minister tweaked the system in his state to suit his own fancies.
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currupt2014 election on4 dec

Indian general election, 2014

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Indian general election, 2014
India
2009 ←
members		 Before May 31, 2014
All 543 seats in the Lok Sabha
272 seats needed for a majority
  Flag of the Indian National Congress.svg BJP-flag.svg
Party Congress BJP
Alliance UPA NDA
Last election 262 seats, 37.22% 137 seats, 24.63%
Current seats 228 137
Seats needed Increase44 Increase135
Incumbent Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh
Congress
A general election will be the next election for the 16th Lok Sabha in India. Voting will take place in all parliamentary constituencies of India to elect members of parliament in the Lok Sabha. The current 15th Lok Sabha will complete its constitutional term on May 31, 2014.[1]

Background

By constitutional requirement, elections to the Lok Sabha must be held at most every five years or whenever parliament is dissolved by the president. The previous election, to the 15th Lok Sabha, was conducted in April–May 2009 and its term would naturally expire on 31 May 2014. The election will be organised by the Election Commission of India (ECI) and are normally held in multiple phases to better handle the large electoral base and security concerns.
Since the last general election, the 2011 Indian anti-corruption movement by Anna Hazare, and other similar moves by Baba Ramdev, have galvanised a young population into political participation.[2] The BJP has also made inroads by winning the Vidhan Sabha in the Goa election and winning despite a tradition of anti-incumbency in Punjab. However, it lost governing in Uttaranchal, Himachel Pradesh and its southern bastion of Karnataka to the INC. It also failed in its having its nominated candidate with the 2012 presidential election, particularly after such allies as the Shiv Sena and Janta Dal (United) failed to follow coalition lines. Similarly, the Telangana movement for a separate Telengana from Andhra Pradesh also continued with agitations, including the initial central government decision to grant statehood and then rescind it after counter-protests. The move was accompanied by calls for other separate areas including Vidharba and Gorkhaland. Andhra politics was further shaken following death of its chief minister, Y. S. R. Reddy. His son, Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy, then broke from the INC and founded the YSR Congress taking several politicians with him.

Organisation

Use of technology

In January 2013, the Election Commission of India announced that it would be using an SMS based alert system called Communication Plan for Election (COMET) during the election. The system, aimed at sending messages to the millions of government officials on election duty, was successfully deployed in the provincial assembly elections in Goa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur in early 2012 and in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in late 2012. The COMET system "uses coded text messages through mobile phones to collect data about officials, information about scheduled events like staff reaching the polling station, mock polls conducted, start of polling, voting percentages every two hours, number of voters in after voting time was over, and whether the poll party reached safely at the high security Electronic Voting Machine (EVMs) deposit centre." The system would also send alerts to the local police in case of disturbances at any polling station.[3]

Campaign

The price of onions, a staple in Indian cuisine, also faces a dramatic price increase.[4]

Issues

On 30 July 2013, the Congress Working Committee unanimously passed a resolution for the creation of Telangana. It formally requested the INC-led central government to make steps in accordance with the constitution of India for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh and the re-creation of Telengana. This was seen as an attempt by the INC to merge the Telangana Rashtra Samiti into itself for the general and provincial election after being marginalised in the Rayalseema and coastal regions by the YSR Congress. All-India Congress Committee general secretary for Andhra Pradesh Digvijay Singh said that TRS leader K. Chandrashekhar Rao had "repeatedly said that once Telangana was announced, he would merge his party with the Congress. We will await his decision and will be favourably inclined to accept the offer of a merger."[5] TRS welcomed the decision, with Rao saying that his party was fine with Hyderabad being the joint capital for 10 years;[6] Ongole was then suggested as the new capital of Andhra Pradesh.[7] YSR Congress party leader Jaganmohan Reddy said that he opposed the decision and would agitate against it,[8] as all its MLAs resigned over the issue.[9] However, former party member Konda Surekha attacked the party and its leader saying that he had backtracked on plenary party meeting supporting the issue.[10] Andhra Pradesh BJP president G. Kishan Reddy gave credit for the move to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in saying that the INC took active interest in the issue after Modi had announced a tour to Hyderabad for 11 August.[11] The BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar suggested that the INC move was under pressure and "that's why we will watch carefully and see whether the intention again to backstab or to really give Telangana, and will watch till Telangana is formed."[12] He added that the BJP supports the creation of "Telangana and Vidarbha’s demand. [The] announcement is the victory of the people of Telangana. BJP has always been in favour of Telangana. Congress promised it in 2004 but dilly-dallied for nine years. It has been a story of the struggle of the people of Telangana and nine years of betrayal by the Congress. The NDA’s agenda in 1999 promised creation of three states, and it was honoured. The Congress, in contrast, made a promise in 2004 but betrayed people for nine years." BJP national President Rajnath Singh re-iterated support and added, in regards to requests for the creation of Gorkhaland and Bodoland, "We were in favour of the Second States Reorganisation Commission earlier too. We now demand that the government should set it up and seek a report within a specific timeframe.[13] The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha also reacted in announcing an indefinite strike in calling for Gorkhaland.[14] Meanwhile, the national Home Ministry said that due to the lack of development in the proposed areas and the proximity to other hotbeds in Chhattishgarh's Bastar and Maharashtra's Gadchiroli regions it could turn into a hotbed for the activities of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) if the administration is not quickly consolidated.[15]
Bloomberg also highlighted India's slowing economy amidst a record high current account deficit and a falling rupee in summer 2013. It pointed out to a lack of infrastructure investment and a government increasingly likely to give subsidies the national finances cannot afford just before the election. Other points it mentioned were stagnant policymaking and an inefficient bureaucracy.[16]

Parties

National Democratic Alliance

Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP)

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was chosen to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party's campaign after a party conclave in Goa.[17][18] This came amid controversy Lal Krishna Advani opposed the decision and resigned from his party posts, only to later rescind his resignation.[19] Murli Manohar Joshi and Sushma Swaraj were part of Team 2014, under Modi's leadership, for the campaign. Rajnath Singh, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani would be the mentors for the BJP's campaign.[20] A 12-member committee,[who?] which will be chaired by Modi, was appointed at the Goa conclave and will have other BJP stalwarts on its committee: M. Venkaiah Naidu, Nitin Gadkari, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh and Goa Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar. Twenty sub-committees will assist the main committee with focus on such aspects of electioneering, including rallies, publicity, manifesto, social media, courting first time voters, "crowd sourcing" and a "charge-sheet" against the UPA. general secretary Ananth Kumar said: "All the sub-committees will be steered under the leadership of Narendra Modi...The party has given Modi the responsibility of 2014 elections...Under his leadership the whole campaign will move forward," BJP general secretary Ananth Kumar said. Gadkari was also tasked with paying "special attention" to Delhi for its forthcoming provincial assembly election; he will be assisted by Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu.
The sub-committees will be composed of the following:[21]
The manifesto committee will be led by Murli Manohar Joshi and will also feature Darjeeling MP Jaswant Singh, MP Yashwant Sinha, former Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, Sushil Kumar Modi, Shahnawaz Hussain and others. A vision document, to be released with the manifesto in order to show what the NDA has achieved, will be prepared by Gadkari and Vinay Sahasrabuddhe.
The publicity management with be led by Swaraj and MP Arun Jaitley with the aid of general secretary Amit Shah and Sudanshu Trivedi. The first time voters, about 20 percent of the electorate, will be managed for the party by Shah, Sidhu and two others. The programme to reach out to professionals will be organised by Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Prakash Javadekar and others. Crowd sourcing will be managed by Dharmendra Pradhan and Rameshwar Chaurasia. Other sub-committees include a team for traditional campaigns composed of Smriti Irani and two others.
Managing the "charge-sheet" against the "misrule" of the UPA in the central government and the provinces, would be Deputy Leader of BJP in Lok Sabha Gopinath Munde, his Rajya Sabha counterpart MP Ravi Shankar Prasad and four others.
Others that will be supporting the campaign - many of whom are members of the Sangh Parivar - will be organized into the campaign by a team led by Gadkari and including Uma Bharati and five others. From August 2013, the party would organise over 100 rallies and will be planned and executed by Ananth Kumar and general secretary Varun Gandhi.
BJP's Mumbai leader, Ashish Shelar, was said to have kicked of campaign advertisements in the city with Modi's remarks in a summer 2013 interview with Reuters in which he said "I am a Hindu Nationalist."[22] Singh said from the U.S.A.: "It's not necessary that party president should also be a crowd puller and a prime ministerial candidate. I have an assignment to do for my party. I have a job to deliver – that is victory of the party in the 2014 elections. Seven months before the elections, I have nominated Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as Chairman of the party's Election Campaign Committee. What is unusual in that? We have nominated Modi like other parties do and why read between lines. I have named him as campaign head in view of his image, popularity and commitment to the party." He added that more coalition partners would come in as development would be the key issue and not Ram Janmabhoomi.[23]
In the last weekend in September, Modi spoke to a rally of more than 200,000 people in New Delhi at a Japanese Park rally (unusual for a non-INC rally) following a rally of 500,000 in Bhopal. His slogan was "Badlo Dilli" (Change Delhi) in reference to the national election and the Delhi provincial assembly election. He also controversially referred to the INC's Rahul Gandhi as "Shahzada" saying: "The issue is whether the country will run as per the constitution or as per the whims of Shahzada. This is conflict between dynasty and democracy." His speech included four parts: Targeting Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's three terms in office as a mere ceremonial role and that her role in the 2010 Commonwealth Games squandered a chance to bring honour to the country due to the corruption scandals; he then focused on the "cult of corruption" and that the UPA's affection for Mohandas Gandhi was reduced only to collecting big currency notes that bear his photo; thirdly, he focused on corruption, misgovernance and the subsequent policy paralysis of the UPA government; and lastly, he focused on individuals gre in the democratic setup of the BJP as opposed the dynastic role of the INC. With his development credentials in Gujarat, he referenced the rise of the Gujarati middle class of six crores was turned to how Indians can develop with the rise of 1.25 billion people.[24] The business community was in favour of Modi becoming prime minister.[25]

United Progressive Alliance

Indian National Congress

The Indian National Congress had announced, on the fourth anniversary of the second United Progressive Alliance government, that its campaign for the election would be led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, INC chairperson Sonia Gandhi and general secretary Rahul Gandhi. Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari said: "The government and the party have decided while Singh is the PM and Sonia is the Congress chief, Rahul Gandhi has energised the party cadre. So the 2014 elections would be fought under the leadership of the triumvirate."[26] Sonia Gandhi appointed her son Rahul to head a six-member committee to formulate and implement alliances, the party manifesto and general publicity for the election.[27]
In response to sagging opinion poll numbers for the general election, the INC sought to fast-track a decision on separating Telangana from Andhra Pradesh, create a coalition government with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Jharkhand, sought to take sole credit for the Food Security Bill and table a controversial landholding farmer-friendly Land Acquisition Bill.[28]
Rahul Gandhi criticised a UPA government ordinance that would allow convicted politicians to contest elections. "I tell you what my opinion on the ordinance is: That it is complete nonsense. It should be torn up and thrown away. That’s my opinion. The arguments that are being made in my organisation is that we need to do this because of political considerations. Everybody does this."[29]

Others

Fourteen polltical parties including four Left parties,[which?] AIADMK, JD(U), SP, BJD, NCP, JD(S), Naga People's Front, Sikkim Democratic Front, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and RPI (Prakash Ambedkar) participated in convention of the parties not allianced to NDA or UPA, held on 30 October, 2013.[30][31]

Janata Dal (United)

The media speculated that Modi still have a chance of gaining in Bihar at the expense of Kumar's party. During the coalition, Modi was not allowed to speak at rallies in the party by mutual understanding and was only allowed for special events such as a funeral or party conclave, even Modi's flood relief aid to Bihar was termed communal. His popularity was seen as a test case in Bihar and if the BJP could increase its tally or the JDU could; it even speculated if Lalu Prasad Yadav could make a comeback after the 2010 provincial election if he is not convicted over the fodder scam. It also suggested that this would be an eager race as it could determine if Kumar's decision was prudent and if he has any national political scope left; while for Modi it would give crucial seats to the BJP and be able to attract potential allies as Bihar is largely based on caste politics.[32]

Rashtriya Janata Dal

Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav said of the BJP's ruling chances that "Modi and Advani can never become the prime minister in their lifetime. Secular forces in this country would never allow the saffron outfit to come to power." In relation to the INC's Rahul Gandhi he said that Gandhi wants to bring change to the country; he added in relation to Digvijay Singh that he was a "good man."[33]

Controversy

Incidents

Just prior to a scheduled rally in Patna in October 2013, eight bombs exploded causing five deaths.

Media

In the run-up to the election the media in India have been criticised for its establishment ties between family owners and political parties. This has caused self-censorship and editorial dismissals at certain media outlets, such as The Hindu for its ties to the INC.[34]

Opinion polls

Date Agency Sample size



UPA NDA TF Other
January–March 2013 [35] Times Now-CVoter No sample size provided 128 184 - -
April–May 2013[36] Headlines Today-CVoter 120,000 (without Modi) 132 (with Modi) 155 (without Modi) 179 (with Modi) 220 - -
May 2013 [37] ABP News-Nielsen 33,408 136 206 - -
July 2013[38] The Week - Hansa Research No sample size provided 184 197 - 162
July 2013[39] CNN-IBN and The Hindu by CSDS 19,062 in 18 states[40] 149-157 172-180 - 208-224
July 2013[28] Times Now-India Today-CVoter National Cumulative 36,914 over a six months span and 13,052 randomly selected respondents from 18–24 July[41] 134 (INC 119) 156 (BJP 131)
-
October 2013 [42] Times Now-India Today-CVoter This opinion poll by India TV-Times Now C Voter-Survey based on national representative sample of 24,284 randomly selected respondents between August 16 and October 15 117 (INC 102) 186 (BJP 162)
240
October 2013 [43] CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS Poll only conducted in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan (72 Lok Sabha Seats)
(All other numbers are from July CNN-IBN-CSDS poll)		 134-142 (INC 116-124) 187-195 (BJP 171-179)
208-216
A survey of first time voters suggested Modi was the most popular prime ministerial candidate and Mamata Banerjee was the most popular outside the BJP or INC.[44]

References

  1. Jump up ^ "Terms of Houses, Election Commission of India". Retrieved June 10, 2013.
  2. Jump up ^ "Loksabha election 2014 predictions Survey - Opinion Poll". Seekers Find .in. 2013-01-28. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
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  4. Jump up ^ http://www.smh.com.au/world/tears-as-indias-onion-prices-soar-20131120-2xun3.html
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  6. Jump up ^ "Hyderabad joint capital as AP to be split into Telangana, Seemandhra". Ibnlive.in.com. 1946-12-09. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
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  9. Jump up ^ http://www.firstpost.com/fwire/ysr-congress-seeks-to-cash-in-on-united-andhra-sentiment-andhra-newsletter-991393.html
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  36. Jump up ^ "Narendra Modi is NDA's trump card for 2014 Lok Sabha polls, reveals Headlines Today C-Voter survey". Indiatoday.intoday.in. 2013-05-21. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  37. Jump up ^ http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42023-upa-set-for-a-crushing-defeatsurvey. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  38. Jump up ^ "Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi top choice for PM, beats Rahul Gandhi, says survey". Indian Express. 2013-07-04. Retrieved 2013-07-31.
  39. Jump up ^ "Poll tracker". CNN-IBN. 26 July 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-26.
  40. Jump up ^ "Survey Methodology". Chennai, India: The Hindu. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 2013-07-25.
  41. Jump up ^ "2014 Poll survey projects NDA making significant gains". economic times. 29 Jul, 2013,. Retrieved 2013-07-29.
  42. Jump up ^ "Congress 102, BJP 162; UPA 117, NDA 186: C-Voter Poll". Outlook. Retrieved 2013-10-17.
  43. Jump up ^ "Big gains likely for BJP, NDA in Lok Sabha polls; big drop for UPA, Congress". IBNLIVE. Retrieved 2013-10-31.
  44. Jump up ^ http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/first-time-voters-want-narendra-modi-as-prime-minister-india-today-cvoter-survey/1/310613.html

External links

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